The Last-Minute BFCM Inventory Playbook for Consumer Brands

Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) 2024 proved just how massive the holiday's revenue opportunity has become. Shopify merchants alone drove $11.5 billion in sales — 24% more than 2023. All signs point to 2025 building on that record-breaking momentum, with online sales starting earlier, stretching longer, and pulling peak demand further forward than ever before.

But by the time September hits, the playbook changes.

Most meaningful purchase orders are already placed. Long production and shipping timelines can mean no new stock will arrive before January. Your inventory position is locked in, and demand is still moving by the day. That's when speed, agility, and proactive planning become the deciding factors in who wins BFCM.

Use this guide to take action on locked-in inventory ahead of BFCM, whether you're weeks out or down to the wire. We'll walk through three strategic objectives and four proven, step-by-step tactics designed to turn a fixed inventory position into a competitive advantage. 

With the right plan, you can protect high-demand SKUs, clear excess stock without slashing margins, and set up a strong revenue run into Q1.

The September Reality Check

With weeks to go before peak season, the advantage lies in how well you manage the inventory already committed to your business. Once stock is in your warehouse or en route, it becomes a fixed asset. There's no more time to replenish before January, which means every unit must be accounted for with intention.

And if you're expecting BFCM to start in late November, it's time to recalibrate. Early holiday demand is now the norm. In 2024, many shoppers began checking off their holiday lists weeks ahead of BFCM weekend — a trend that's only intensifying. According to Bazaarvoice, September and October have seen significant gains as the new starting point for holiday shopping, while December experienced an 8-point drop in activity compared to the previous year.

With lead times behind you, the levers left to pull are allocation, promotion, and pricing. Brands that wait too long risk missing early sales, tying up cash in slow-moving products, and relying on steep markdowns to move inventory — all of which cut into margins. Acting now ensures you capture pre-BFCM demand without compromising peak-week performance or your January revenue.

The Three BFCM Objectives That Matter Now

The next eight weeks are about moving from a fixed supply to a flexible plan. With most stock already committed, the smartest brands aren’t focused on adding more, but on doing more with what they already have. These three objectives will keep sales momentum high throughout peak season while setting you up for a strong and profitable January.

Secure January Revenue

Protect your bestsellers so they're available for the post-holiday bounce, when gift cards and returns drive repeat purchases. Make sure your hero SKUs carry through into the new year by setting minimum inventory guardrails and reorder triggers that prevent accidental sellouts. 

January can be just as critical for high-margin sales — and the brands that plan ahead will be the ones ready to capture them.

Optimize Your Inventory Mix

Target slow movers before they lock up capital in Q1. One of the easiest ways to do this is with ABC segmentation, a straightforward method for ranking products by their revenue impact. A items are your top revenue drivers, B items contribute moderately, and C items generate the least.

From there, pinpoint which SKUs have high on-hand counts and low sell-through. Then build precision promotions or bundles that help clear them, all without discounting naturally high-demand products.

Maximize Margin Opportunity

Avoid across-the-board markdowns that drain your bottom line. Instead, keep discounts focused on SKUs that need help moving. Hold your high-velocity products at full price for as long as demand holds, extending their value and keeping your promotions purposeful. This strategic approach protects your margin and positions you to compete more effectively throughout the entire holiday season.

Four Tactical Strategies to Hit Your BFCM Objectives

With your supply already set, hitting your BFCM objectives now depends on how effectively you deploy what you have. That requires an integrated approach — one that makes every unit in your warehouse work harder and smarter. 

No single tactic will work in isolation. Protecting January revenue means clearing excess inventory now so it doesn't tie up capital into Q1. Moving slow stock without touching high-demand items requires knowing, in real time, which SKUs need help. And maximizing full-price sales depends on balancing all these levers simultaneously, adjusting as data and demands shift.

That's where Moselle comes in. Our AI-informed, all-in-one inventory planning platform makes this kind of precision planning possible. With customizable top-down and bottom-up forecasts, modular reporting, and unified sales, inventory, and forecasting data, you'll know exactly which SKUs to protect, which to promote, and when to pivot.

The four strategies that follow are designed to work together and evolve with you as the season unfolds. Together, they help turn a fixed inventory position into a standout Q4 performance and profitable January.

1. Protect Q1 With Minimum Inventory (Safety Stock) Guardrails

Minimum inventory guardrails — also called safety stock thresholds — are one of the most effective ways to protect January revenue. By setting inventory floors for your best-selling SKUs, you can ensure they stay available during the post-holiday demand surge when shoppers return to redeem gift cards, make exchanges, and restock on favorites.

This tactic works by creating inventory buffers that bridge the often-overlooked surge in January demand. Instead of scrambling to restock after the holiday rush, you're planning for it in advance, giving your top SKUs the staying power they need to capture late-season revenue.

The benefit: you keep your high-margin, high-demand products available just as competitors may be selling out.

For example, Sahajan used Moselle's early warning signals to detect a spike in demand for its hero product, Nourish Créme Riche — a shift that would've been nearly impossible for a human planner to catch in time. With cash freed from slow-moving inventory, the team held and replenished stock to meet record-breaking January sales instead of missing the window.

How to do it:

• Use Moselle's reporting tools to pull a 90-day, SKU-level view of sales velocity.
• Identify your A-list SKUs — the top 20% by revenue — for close tracking.
• Build a production plan with replenishment targets that keep inventory healthy through the holiday spike and into January.
• Refresh these thresholds weekly as sell-through rates evolve to stay proactive.

You'll know you've nailed this when your top SKUs are still in stock come January — and ready to capture every late-season sale while others are scrambling to restock.

2. Run Precision Promotions to Clear Excess Inventory

Freeing up space and cash before January means finding efficient ways to move slow sellers without undercutting your most profitable products. Precision promotions give you the ability to target excess stock directly, moving what's slow without discounting what's selling. That means you can generate meaningful revenue while keeping bestsellers at full price.

This strategy works by turning slow-moving inventory into promotional fuel — drawing shoppers in with targeted offers and guiding them toward high-value items. Done right, these promotions improve cash flow and free up storage without damaging your brand or eroding perceived value. 

Wilet, for example, used Moselle to analyze color-specific demand and bundling performance. With that insight, they launched targeted promotions that helped reduce out-of-stocks by more than 16% — all without deep-cutting their top products.

How to do it:

• Moselle will help you to identify SKUs by revenue contribution (A = top earners, B = mid-range, C = low sellers).
• Apply deep discounts to C-grade (dead stock), modest discounts to B-grade, and keep A-grade full price.
• Create bundles that pair slower-moving C-grade products with high-demand A-grade SKUs to drive faster sell-through.

You're ready to move on when dead stock is moving, cash flow is freed up, and your hero products stay full price all season long.

3. Reallocate Inventory to Match Demand Shifts

Even the best forecasts can't perfectly predict how demand will play out across every channel. When sales don't align with your original plan, the fastest way to protect performance is to shift inventory to where it's selling best. Strategic reallocation ensures your highest-value stock ends up in your highest-performing channels — turning uneven demand into an opportunity instead of a liability.

This approach works because it gives you the flexibility to respond quickly and maximize performance. By shifting stock to where it's selling fastest, you can improve sell-through, capture demand across all channels, and keep cash flow moving — all without adding more inventory.

For brands like Numi, better planning and live inventory visibility made a measurable impact. With Moselle, they improved cross-channel visibility and reallocation strategy, resulting in a 12% reduction in stockouts — all without needing to overproduce or rush in new inventory.

How to do it:

• Use Scenario Planning in Moselle to model SKU-level demand by channel under a "no incoming stock" assumption.
• Compare forecasted vs. actual performance in the Forecast Performance report to spot over- or underperforming channels.
• In your Inventory Plan Summary, filter by SKU to identify depletions in slower-moving channels that aligns with faster-moving demand elsewhere.
• Before reallocating, check each channel's minimum inventory thresholds in Moselle to avoid creating shortages elsewhere.
• Review and adjust replenishment plan — or more often during high-volume periods — so you're always matching inventory to where sell-through is strongest.

You'll know this strategy is working when stock is flowing to where it sells fastest — and your top-performing inventory is always in the right place at the right time.

4. Monitor and Act in Real Time

In a fixed-supply season, real-time monitoring sharpens every decision and strengthens the results of your broader plan. When you can track performance as it happens, safety stock guardrails adjust dynamically, promotions become more surgical, and reallocation decisions hit at the right time and place. This strategy transforms solid planning into standout results.

Think of it as your command center: a central hub that connects every lever you're pulling. With live data flowing in, you can spot risks early, fine-tune execution across the board, and keep all your tactics working in sync. Instead of managing four separate strategies, you're running an agile, integrated system — the kind of setup that gives leading brands their edge.

That's exactly what Fable achieved by automating its planning reviews in Moselle. The brand saved 80 hours per month and gained the ability to make early adjustments when stock risk indicators appeared — turning potential missed sales into captured revenue without any last-minute panic.

How to do it:

• Set up rolling forecasts in Moselle using live sell-through data — automated and refreshed daily.
• Configure alerts for SKUs that fall below safety stock levels, exceed expected sell-through rates, or show unexpected demand spikes.
• Review weekly forecasts vs. actuals to adjust guardrails, promotion plans, or inventory reallocations as needed.

You'll know it's working when those four strategies start operating as one — driving stronger sell-through, protecting margins, and setting you up for a standout Q4 and a high-margin start to Q1.

Turn Your BFCM Plan Into Action With Moselle

The strategies you've just explored work best when powered by real-time, accurate data — and a partner that helps you act on it. Moselle is that partner. We work alongside your team to make confident moves before and during BFCM, simplify the day-to-day, and keep your operations lean.

Whether you're protecting January inventory, clearing excess stock, or navigating peak-week demand, Moselle gives you the tools to act with precision, not panic. Our platform combines AI-informed forecasting, modular reporting, and always-on visibility to turn your inventory position into a revenue advantage.

With Moselle, you can:

• Capture every sales opportunity: Stay ahead with real-time, SKU-level visibility across all channels so you can spot demand spikes early and act before competitors react.
• Protect your margins: Use daily-updated, AI-informed forecasts to avoid unnecessary discounts and keep high-velocity SKUs at full price for as long as demand holds.
• Make every unit count: Instantly see which products to protect, promote, or reallocate, turning fixed inventory into a competitive advantage.
• Prevent costly surprises: Model "no new stock" scenarios to plan for demand surges and maintain availability during critical selling windows.
• Plan with precision: Set and monitor safety stock guardrails with automated alerts so you never miss a replenishment opportunity for hero SKUs.
• Tailor your strategy: Customize reports and forecasts to match your workflows, making every inventory decision faster, easier, and more accurate.

Moselle customers have cut stockouts by up to 16%, saved hundreds of hours annually, and unlocked six-figure cost savings — all by replacing manual processes with streamlined automation. 

The platform is fast to implement, with most teams seeing value from Day 1, and it's built to support every inventory decision through BFCM and beyond.

Connect with Moselle today to build your BFCM-ready plan while there's still time to act.